High Gas Prices Mean Less Traffic Fatalities

As gasoline climbed to over $4 a gallon this year, the traffic death rate, according to one study, appears to be approaching its lowest level since 1961. According to the Transportation Research Institute at the University of Michigan, this decrease is a result of a change in Americans' driving habits.

The institute's study, which covered the 12 months ending with April 2008, discovered that as gas prices rose, driving deaths declined. What was particularly interesting, said Professor Michael Sivak, author of the study, was the steep decline in fatalities in March and April as gasoline prices rose above $3.20 per gallon. Over the previous two months, fatalities declined by an average of 4.2 percent compared to 2007. In March and April, fatalities declined 22.1 percent and 17.9 percent respectively.

According to Sivak, this rapid drop suggests that motorists reached a "tipping point" and have begun to drastically alter their driving behavior, changing not only how often they drive, but where, when, and how they drive. He added that data for May and June show similar patterns. "There is something more than just the reduction in driving that has to be brought in as an explanation for the huge drop in fatalities," he noted.

If the trend continues throughout the year, he says that it would lead to "an unheard of improvement" in motor vehicle fatalities. Sivak analyzed data from the National Safety Council, National Center for Health Statistics, and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. He predicted that highway deaths for this year will fall below 37,000 for the first time since 1961 if the March and April trends continue.

The government motor vehicle death count for 1961 was 36,285. This total peaked in 1972 at 55,600 and then gradually declined over the next 20 years. For the past several years, the number has remained constant at about 42,000 per year.

Experts who have studied motor vehicle fatality trends said that one reason for the decline is that people are cutting back on their nonessential driving first, which is often leisure driving at night or on weekends. These are riskier driving times than daylight hours, which can be spent on congested highways where speeds are lower.

Additionally, it is believed that teenagers and elderly drivers, who have higher accident rates, are probably feeling the rise in gas prices most acutely, therefore cutting back more than other drivers. Also, experts say that in an effort to save on gas, some people may simply be slowing down, which also cuts accident risk.

"It's really interesting that with all these efforts that have gone into building safer highways, safer cars, better enforcement….this really dramatic change we're seeing is due to economics, to the price of gasoline," said Paul Fischebck, director of Cen ter for the Study and Improvement of Regulation at Carnegie Mellon University.

Source: "High gas prices drive down traffic fatalities." Associated Press. August 25, 2008.